A Crusade to the Capital || Motherwell vs Hibernian Preview
- Ruaraidh Blackwood
- Jan 9
- 11 min read
After another convincing home win against St Mirren, and an eleventh clean sheet of the season, Motherwell make the trip to Leith to take on David Gray's Hibs.
The Hibees come into this one on a good run of form themselves with three wins on the bounce, including a classic against their city rivals.
Still makes for good viewing, right? With The Rangers beating Celtic in the Old Firm derby, and then defeating Aberdeen in midweek, they leapfrogged Celtic into 2nd spot. Still, with the gap between the Steelmen and Hearts only being 8 points - and with the turbulence in the Celtic camp once again - I would still say there's a chance (albeit, very small) that Motherwell won't win the league. Ha. Ha.
All jokes aside, to say we're in strong competition for European places at this point in the season is an understatement, and is testament to JBA's regime once again.
Conversely, Hibs are very much nipping at our heels. Their own run of games has seen them keep up with the top four, and be still very much in the hunt for Europe again themselves. Should we have failed to beat St Mirren at the weekend, we very easily could have seen the Well slip to fifth, making this game at the weekend all the more important. All the ingredients for a cracker.
The Form Guide...
Motherwell come into this game, once again, in fine form. A small blip at Ibrox against Danny Rühl's Rangers side is simply that. A blip. A blot on the otherwise pretty pristine copybook.
With 5 goals scored in as many games, it's a similar outlook in terms of attacking output to my last pre-match article. However, with 4 goals in the last two games, it is perhaps a sign of more positive things to come. A slight tweak to the personnel and system again (which I'll break down in more depth later) has also yielded the most goals scored over two games since November.
As mentioned before, Hibs' form has also very much been on the up over the last few games. I can draw a lot of parallels between our recent results, with a narrow away defeat at Ibrox - as well as a draw at Tannadice - being in the last five games for the Hibees. However, Gray’s men have scored nearly double the amount of goals that Motherwell have in the same period, and have only failed to score in one of their last five. Despite this, it can be said that the Steelmen's defensive resolve is of a higher quality, shipping only 1 goal in 5 games, compared to Hibs' 5.
The Teams...
A return to league action for Tawanda Maswanhise was among three changes made for the Well from the win over Celtic in midweek. Out went Koutroumbis, Priestman, and Sparrow, with the aforementioned Tawanda, Welsh, and Longelo all coming in. None of this seemed overly tactically-minded, although the inclusion of Tawanda from the start was a welcome surprise. Having not long come back after AFCON, we anticipated him to be reintroduced more slowly, but to have him in from the start was a definite plus for the Well, evidently.
Tactically, the shift we've made over the last two games to a pair of strikers with wide support seems to have beared fruit very quickly. Motherwell have added another dimension to their attack, with the ability to add through balls into the box for shot-creating actions to their arsenal. As well as this, with more bodies available in slow build-up, there then creates more space for early crosses into the box. Stephen O'Donnell's inch-perfect ball to the head of Said was possible - at least in part - due to the time afforded him by the plethora of runs and options elsewhere. Despite playing at centre-half in that game, the SODfather having Sparrow and Just ahead meant that Celtic's defence sat off of him, and gave him the space to float a direct cross into the box from deep.
Hibs made two changes to the team that beat Aberdeen at home, bringing in Hoilett and Youan for Campbell and Boyle, respectively. Playing a very similar system to when we played them at Fir Park in November, the back four of Sallinger, O'Hora, Hanley, and Iredale have been pretty settled week on week. Gray has, on occasion, gone to a back 5 instead of a 3; with both wing backs being more defensively-minded and a more flat midfield - at least on paper. This has been to mixed success, yielding a win against the Jambos, but also only a draw away to the orange side of Dundee.
The danger men then, who are they? Well, with two goals in his last outing, it'd be silly to write off Élie Youan. The Frenchman has five goal contributions so far this season, and will certainly be a handful both in the air and at the rebound. His strike partner - and joint top scorer at Hibs so far - Kieron Bowie will also be looking to add more goals to his tally against the Well. Finally, midfielder Jamie McGrath - signed on a pre-contract from Aberdeen in February - has 11 goal contributions in all competitions this term, already equalling his tally for the Dons last season.
What Askou Had To Say...
On the approaching challenge, and how much the manager is looking forward to pitting ourselves against a team very much at our heels, it is fair to say that he is revelling in it. I would say I am surprised by the relative outburst of emotion from Askou, considering his usual temperament. For being a man that usually takes each game as it comes and never likes to give in to the hype of one game over any other, it was refreshing to see him so raring to go. He touched on the ability to silence the home crowd - something we managed for 60+ minutes in the Hearts game at Tynecastle before ultimately faltering - and the fact that this will be a difficult and big game for both sides.
When asked about the noise from outsiders about the fact that we are in the conversation for ‘title challengers’, and about whether or not he will embrace of ‘play down’ that noise, JBA was quick to raise the point that it is not about ‘playing down’ the prospects. It is about realism. He then, very eloquently, went on to discuss the financial gaps between the rest of the league and the Old Firm, and how that affects how much teams are able to compete over a 38-game season. His idea is that, realistically, no team should be able to compete with Celtic and Rangers over the course of that season, financially, because their squads and pockets are vastly deeper than the entirety of the competition. He did note that, due in part to their brilliant scouting model this season as well as their financial might, Hearts have got a real chance of still being in the conversation for title winners come game 37 or 38, but the focus for Motherwell has and should always be: fight for top 6, then go from there.
When prompted to expand on what it shows when the Steelmen are in the conversation about challenging for the title, Askou went on to praise our performances, and attribute that as a major factor for why we are in the position we are in. That’s no coincidence either, when you dive into the data (as we have, found in Issue 2 of the Fanzine, on sale here!) that we are high-flying, considering how much we control and dictate how games play out now instead of reacting and being on the back foot. JBA expects Hibs to have learned lessons from previous games, and has seen as much from footage, so this will still be a very tough test despite what happened last time out.
On the squad, Askou shed some light on the Elliot Watt situation. He explained that, in the last match, he picked up a “problem” which is still being assessed, and they will make decisions closer to the time as to whether or not he is fit to play. Not downplaying the significance of the part Watt has played so far this year, JBA was still quick to reassure that the next man up will be just as effective, as they have been so far this term when the midfielder has been rested. One reporter brought up Priestman as a potential deputy, to which Askou agreed that the young Aussie has played extremely well when given the chance - particularly against Hibs at Fir Park and the Celtic game.
On the expectations set out at the start of the season, and whether or not the new regime has exceeded them, Askou said that no one within the club would have expected the turnaround to be so swift and effective. He obviously hoped that this group would hit the ground running, but to say that the uptake has been miraculous is an understatement. JBA then went on to praise the potential there was in the players he received - and brought in - and how there is still room to go further with them. The fact we have room still to grow as a club is pleasing to hear as a fan, considering how well everything seems to be going right now, and to know the best is yet to come is enough to light the fire in your belly yet again.
On the transfer window, Askou was asked if he’d be looking to strengthen in any areas - particularly if Watt remains on the sidelines for an extended period. He replied that he wants to finish the window stronger than he started it, but then went on to stipulate that we cannot and will not buy ourselves to better positions, and for two reasons. Firstly, we can’t afford it. Secondly, and more importantly, the squad we have is of superb quality and depth, and the only reason we’d have to test the market is if an important player is sidelined for an extended period and we cannot fill from within the squad. The thoughts, however, must be thorough. It would be nearly impossible for a player to come from outside our regime and - without a preseason - immediately perform to the same level as those that are in the building. The last point made is that there will be “some adjustments” during the window, which seems to suggest that there could be some players moved on. I’d be inclined to suggest that this is also a double positive. Remove dead weight, and allow for other replacements. There are more than a few in the squad at the moment that have made very few - or even no - appearances in the competitive season, and it’d be sensible for the club to move these players on to both allow them to go and play, while also shifting their wages off our bill.
On the vacancies at Celtic and Aberdeen, and how Askou’s name has been mentioned in both conversations, one reporter asked what he thinks it says about how the rest of the league view the job he’s done in ML1. To which, JBA replied that when a team is successful - especially when punching above its weight - it is natural for players and staff to be linked with moves elsewhere. On the contrary, though, Askou said it tends to fuel the passion even more within the club that those people are in. The goal is to improve; as a team, as individuals, as a club, but also it is to see how much of an impact we can make on this league.
On the ability to retain the squad, Askou was quick to confirm he is - of course - wanting to do everything he can to keep his players. The analogy he used was one of retaining ‘pillars’, a spine of a team from which a squad can be built, brick by brick. If you remove one of these pillars, you must then replace it before you can even begin to think about moving forward. The constant struggle with Motherwell is the balance between our long-term business model and the drive for short-term success on the pitch. As all Motherwell fans will be aware, we are a club very much built on the ethos or selling players on for profit. Either by identifying hidden gems through our scouting network, or by building from our own academy, we then look to move players on to balance the books since cup and league success is modest, so too the prize money.
Finally, on squad news. Askou mentioned - as had been announced on social media - that Jordan McGhee has returned to training about a week ago, having sustained two pretty major injuries since joining the Well in the summer. This is brilliant to see, considering he was brought in as another defensive option both centrally and on the wing, and it will be good to have even more competition for places in the defence. With Sule’s loan being terminated, JBA was questioned as to whether or not there’d be room for another striking option, but the gaffer was quick to point out that the West Brom loanee was brought in as a third choice for the position, to give competition and potentially come into the team at some point; but with his injury coming so early, it then meant we brought in Esapa Osong as a replacement. The manager then concluded with the point that it makes more sense for the young Scots striker to find football elsewhere, once he returns to full fitness.
The Tactics...
So - despite having numbers in the backline with 3 at the back and 2 wing backs - Hibs are dangerously susceptible to headed goals of late. And, even if they do win the first contact, they can be disastrously slow with their reaction. If we can load the box with enough late runs, as well as have players floating around the six-yard box causing trouble, I believe that chances will most certainly come. Think along the lines of Said’s goal against Celtic, or even Hendry’s against St Mirren in the semi.
Secondly, the subject of speed. With an aging Grant Hanley in the middle of a back 3, and not a massive amount of pace either side of him, Hibs' defence turns like a double decker. On multiple occasions in recent games we've seen them caught on the break, and all it can take is one well-placed ball during a transition to be 1v1 against Sallinger. On top of this, Hanley will - more often than not - look to sit 3-5 yards deeper than his CB partners, allowing for almost everyone to be played onside. With Tawanda being caught by the offside flag a few times in the last game alone, this could be the perfect game for him to have the space to make more runs in behind.
On the contrary, what are their threats? Well, ironically, one of their big weaknesses is also a regular source for chances and goals for them when in possession. The formation they play, and the iteration of that formation, lends itself very well to both wing play, and runs from deep.
It is expected of both wing-backs to provide support on the attack, and from there they'll put balls into the box for their central players (usually the strikers). From there, you'll have one striker attacking the ball while others (second striker and usually at least one midfielder) waiting for the rebound. The latter is what I'd refer to as the 'Martin Boyle' role, a sort of terrier waiting in the wings to bite at your ankles.
As well as this, most of the time you'll see the midfield dropping deep (usually McGrath) and looking to take the ball on a run too. This then commits defenders and opens up space elsewhere, either to go wide for a cross, or play the ball in behind for the front 2 to run onto. Once the ball comes wide, there is then an option for a cross (as previously mentioned) or to drive to the byline and cut the ball back to the likes of McGrath, who'll be eagerly peeling around to the penalty spot to step onto said cutback.
All in all, for all McGrath is the penalty taker, he still has 4 non-penalty goals in the league. He and the other late runners will definitely need marked and marshalled well throughout, as well as any other of the weapons that Gray has at his disposal.
What Fadinger Had To Say...
To Sum Up...
With this game being so close to the last, it'd be silly to think that Hibs will not have learned from the mistakes made in the clash at Fir Park. They'll be in front of an expectant home crowd, who will have high hopes given their recent form. However, Motherwell are bringing a sell-out away end, and we still have plenty to say in the game.
I expect this to be not too dissimilar to the last game, in terms of stats. Motherwell with all of the ball, maybe some more big chances, Hanley won't be able to keep up with our attackers and will therefore get a booking, et cetera. However, it's what we do with that possession that will tell the story of this game, and how much we are able to keep Hibs out. Either way, this is turning into a clash of European hopefuls, and I myself cannot wait.
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