Into the Jungle | Celtic vs Motherwell

A sold out Motherwell contingent travels to G40 to take on the current holders of the SPFL Premiership title: Celtic.

Parkhead, the next stop for the Motherwell journey

With the business end of the season quickly approaching, a win is massive for at least ten of the teams in the SPFL right now: Motherwell and Celtic are no strangers to this. Celtic are under particular pressure currently: an ongoing battle between fans and board, some true Jekyll and Hyde performances, the risk of going two matches defeated consecutively at Celtic Park since 2020 - coupled with the enormous expectations that a club like Celtic's carries - it is easy to see why all is not rosy in the East End of Glasgow.

The pressure is not quite as intense at Motherwell, given expectations have already been exceeded, but the prospect of getting a top 3 (or beyond?) finish is beyond enticing. Not to mention it could carry significant consequences for next seasons UEFA Conference / Europa league adventures should we achieve that. The first step, is to try and gain some ground back on the Glasgow giants after last weeks slump at Dens Park

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The Form Guide...

Given the ridiculous heights Celtic have reached, it is easy to look at their results this season and come to the conclusion that they just simply no longer the giant they once were. Open, weak, vulnerable, in some games. This idea carries a little truth, relative to their past. They are more open, more vulnerable, a little weaker - but they are still the league holders and in front of 60,000 - GB fans, one can expect a Celtic team that is, in its simplest term, fired up.

Mentality aside, one could also argue that they have been rather unlucky this season.

Above is the xPTS table. Obviously, it's not more important than the real table. However, the xPTS table can show if you're over performing or underperforming. Celtic's deviation of two points is in the normal range of deviation for these kinds of tables, but based purely on the chances created vs the chances they've conceded, they should be top of the league.

Though, it's not an exact science, and teams will buck the trend, positively and negatively. Hearts and Motherwell are both good examples here. Hearts have a staggering deviation of 13 points, well, well outwith the norm. Motherwell has a significant deviation of 12 goals on xGA (Expected Goals Against), which does imply superb goalkeeping and a bit of luck.

Still, back to my point. The truth is, even with a Wilfried Nancy full-frontal assault on football, Celtic are, relative to their league counterparts, still one of the best, if not the best, performing team in the league.

Their game against Hibs is a prime example.

Metric	Celtic	Hibs
xG	3.59	0.86
Poss.	60.7%	39.3%
Field tilt	83.6%	16.4%
PPDA	14.8	23.6
High Recovery	4	5
Crosses	30	11
Corners	11	1
Fouls	8	7

Hibs were not really in the game much. All the momentum was with Celtic until Trusty (rightly) got sent off. This is not to say Hibs did not deserve their win, they did get the win. Performance wise though, perhaps Celtic deserved more.

Despite all of the above, I'm going to present some data that likely derails the whole argument, but I think it's worth addressing. When I was reading Christoph Biermann's Football Hackers, he presents the following table.

Metric	Team A	Team B
Poss.	52%	48%
Passes into the 18-Yard box.	19	11
Crosses	22	10
Corners	7	5
Dangerous Attacks	55	34
Tackles won	5	1
Lost Balls	69	76
Shots	18	14
Shots on Target	13	12

Reading the above, one might suspect a win for Team A, or, perhaps like in the Hibs game, a narrow, fortunate win for Team B. Actually, the data above is from the World Cup semi-final between Brazil and Germany, where the Germans thrashed tournament hosts Brazil 7-1. I would not blame you if you're now left wondering what my point is. I just threw lots of data at you to prove that Celtic have probably been a little unlucky this year, and then shown you that data is pointless and that I've just wasted your time.

In reality, my point is three-fold: Celtic are vulnerable compared to their teams of yesterday, simultaneously, however, they're still very strong relative to the league, and data isn't always deterministic.

Teams and Expected Tactics

Celtic

Addressing the home side first, one would expect goalkeeper Finnish goalkeeper Vilijami Sinisalo to remain in goals for tomorrow's clash. Danish keeper Kasper Schmeichel has been out with illness recently and hasn't featured since Celtic's 2-1 loss to Hibs, but Martin O'Neill said he might be in contention. American centre-back Auston Trusty serves a suspension so won't be in contention for tomorrow's fixture. Interestingly, Celtic skipper Callum MacGregor will also be missing the game tomorrow, Martin O'Neil confirmed in his press-conference, citing a calf strain. Alistair Johnson, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Jota, and Arne Engels all remain out for contention due to injuries. Kieran Tierney is reportedly feeling a lot better and also is in contention for tomorrow's game.         

"Really tough game. Absolutely. They've had a fantastic time, a bit of a setback there last week at Dundee, but really have been the proverbial breath of fresh air for the SPL (sic). It's been terrific, they play really well and they play matches without any real fear. It's great. They've been terrific, Hearts have been great this season, and I also think that Falkirk have been terrific as well. But for our immediate opponents, Motherwell is a real difficult game for us. Celtic manager Martin O'Neill on playing against Motherwell

It would be a surprise if Celtic deploy a high press on Saturday. Their PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) remains fairly high, and it didn't seem one was in play against Rangers and VfB Stuttgart. It would also be bizarre to use it against the most press-resistant team in the league. I suspect Callum Ward will bait the press though, but when it comes, and it will come, it just won't be as verocious or as organised as it usually is with Celtic.

Despite my train ticket to Dalmarnock tomorrow costing more than Celtic's January transfer window spend, Celtic did add some additions through loan deals and free agents. One of which being striker Tomás Cvancara, who joined on loan from Borussia Mönchengladbach. He's had an average start to life in Scotland, only scoring once in 365 minutes. Chukwubuike Adamu, joining from Freiburg, hasn't yet scored in Scotland in 119 minutes so far. Veteran midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has had a mixed start to life in Glasgow. He's played 162 minutes so far in the SPFL and scored a delightful winner against Livingston at Parkhead, but his performances, to me, have been quite varied. Against Rangers, for example, he didn't look like he was matching the pace of the match. Against Kilmarnock in Celtic's 3-2 win, he was subbed off at half-time. It is not lost on me the insanity of saying a player of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain's quality might not be the best player to select against Motherwell, but I think with the tempo Motherwell play with under Askou, it would be a surprise if he played the majority of the match. I would expect a cameo from the bench here. Particularly if the football gods are smiling on us and we happen to be leading at Celtic Park.

Martin O'Neill's typical formation in his third stint at Celtic appears to switch between a 4-2-3-1 and a 4-3-3.

Motherwell

Askou confirmed that Regan Charles-Cook suffered a small injury against Dundee and will be out for a few weeks. Lukas Fadinger had to come off against Dundee, but will be available for selection tomorrow. Eythor suffered a knock, but is similarly available. Matty Connelly had a knock but is unavailable for selection, hence the return of Aston Oxborough temporarily from his loan with Dunfermline Athletic. Stephen Welsh is unavailable to play against his parent club and the other long-term injured players remain out.

I think we will be facing a Celtic team that is more like the one we faced the first time than the one we faced the second time. Obviously Martin and the rest of the staff has done well in terms of trying to get them back on track in a very hectic time. They have done well. Some of the things they're doing are very similar are what we're used to when Brendan was there, with a few minor things adjusted which we have obviously looked into, with a ton of experience on the bench to guide them through when we try to challenge them with what we can do. I expect it to be a very tough, difficult game and obviously the same scenery when we played them the first time. The good thing is now we have a little bit of experience being there and having something to lose and getting that pressure against us from both the stands but also the quality they can throw at us from all sides. Jens Berthel Askou on facing Celtic and what 'type' of Celtic he'll be up against

Therefore, we would expect a generally standard starting XI from JBA. The caveat being Stephen Welsh's inclusion, or lack thereof. The options we have seen when this has been the case means it isn't as straight forward as "Centre Back B starts". We've seen JBA utilise Sir SOD in this position a few times, with Sparrow/Koutroumbis starting at RB. We have also, seen the aforementioned like for like replacement, with Liam Gordon stepping into the open berth, and SOD remaining at RB. Both options have there own pros and cons, and with Celtics recent joys in attack coming from the wings through Tounetki and Yang, it's a decision which could make or break the 90. The formation, we know, tried and trusted 4-2-3-1. The way we play, we know. And we've seen it work at Parkhead before, if not for some mistakes we would have emerged victorious. The confidence, and belief needs to be there form the get go.

A sold out away section, backing the boys to the hilt. Come 3pm in Glasgow, lets make sure they know we are there.