The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly | Heart of Midlothian 3 - 1 Motherwell
- Declan Dundas
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
A harsh defeat for Motherwell saw the league leaders continue their excellent title campaign, whilst an Aberdeen win over Hibernian keeps the three point gap that separates North Lanarkshire and Leith in their respective pursuits of Europe.
A thunderous, sold-out Tynecastle felt fit for the occasion. Scarves waving, tifos raised, a loud home crowd, Tynecastle felt like a stadium that was chasing silverware.
The Good
Motherwell's chance creation was, by all accounts, elite. Motherwell created an impressive xG of 2.06 out of 12 shots, with 3 'big chances' being recorded. This was our highest xG since the 5-0 thrashing against St Mirren (which was only 1.95, believe it or not!). It's our 12th highest out of 32 Premiership games and it sits above our season averge of 1.78.
The quality of the chances is also good. We're not creating xG out of volume (e.g., 100 shots with an xG of 0.01 will probably result in a goal once, whilst 4 shots with an xG of 0.25 will also probably result in a goal once). That isn't what's happening here, where we're just peppering shots from 30 yards. The xG per shot today was 0.168. A typical league average is around 0.10-0.12xG per shot, so the quality of chances created was excellent. Additionally, Motherwell's high xG creation all came from open play - suggesting that the attacking patterns and the movement are all creating genuinely high-quality opportunities.
Despite the recent slump, this is a team that isn't performing badly, attacking-wise.
The Bad
Despite Motherwell creating an xG of 2.01 from open play being fantastic, none of it came from set pieces. Nada. Zilch. Despite having 4 corners and 7 free kicks. I confess I don't have stats to hand of how many goals we've scored from set pieces this season, but I don't believe it'd be high. It's a clear part of the game we're lacking in.
Another killer stat here is that, whilst 2.01 xG is insanely impressive, the xG on Target (xGOT) was a feeble 1.03. Motherwell are losing nearly half of the expected value between chance creation and shot execution. Hearts did the opposite: 1.74xG but commanding an impressive 2.55 xGOT, meaning that their finishing quality exceeded the chances created (the penalty skews this a little, but it's still impressive). Where Motherwell won the battle of the chances and the build-up, they lost it in the execution.
Defensively, we are regressing and regressing hard. Season-wide before today, Motherwell had conceded 22 goals from 44.32 xGA. That's about 50% of the chances we're conceding hitting the net. Not sustainable, at all. And the last few games have proved that. Motherwell have conceded 8 goals from 6.71xGA, a conversion rate of 119%.
Another area Motherwell lost the game today was on the individual battles. Hearts wanted the game more, and the stats prove it.
Hearts won 57 duels to Motherwell's 39, dominated ground duels 61% to Well's 39%, won aerial duels 58% of the time - and, we committed double the fouls Hearts did (14 to their 7). Motherwell additionally made 25 clearances as opposed to Hearts' 15 - all of these suggesting that Motherwell were second to the ball consistently and under sustained physical pressure.
Motherwell's Point Per Game (PPG) drop-off is a cliff. December's was 2.33, January's was 2.5, February was 2.5, March and April so far is 0.33.
In essence, Motherwell are still creating enough chances to win, but they're not converting, and the defensive luck that carried Motherwell earlier in the season has vanished.
The Ugly
The penalty decision Hearts were awarded is, to say the least, extremely soft. The International Football Association Board (IFAB), are the independent legislators of rules in football. IFAB describe dangerous play as “any action that, while trying to play the ball, threatens injury to someone, including the player themself”.
Said vs Falkirk, Fadinger at Ibrox, Oxlaide-Chamberlain on Just, Maswanhise vs Falkirk, Welsh vs Hearts. There's probably more, there's definitely more. But it does feel like every major decision isn't going our way now.
Perhaps Motherwell's punishment has went beyond the two-games Slattery was suspended for.
Alas, Rangers up next at Ibrox. Let's hope the break gives Askou and the boys the chance to fix the defensive issues and just pray David Dickinson, Duncan Nicholson, or Matthew MacDermid aren’t the referees at Ibrox...
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