The Ruaraidh Blackwood Derby || Falkirk v Motherwell
- Ruaraidh Blackwood
- Dec 3
- 7 min read
After a frustratingly dominant goalless draw against league leaders Hearts, Motherwell find themselves on their travels once again. This time, it's a trip to another plastic pitch, Falkirk Stadium. The Bairns have just seen out a similar goalless draw at Ibrox, and come to Fir Park with hopes of making it two wins from two over the Steelmen this campaign.
A win over the Gorgie side could have closed the gap upwards to just four points, but with Falkirk and Rangers also drawing, it means we cling onto third spot until at least Wednesday.
Falkirk's draw against The Rangers helps them pull further away from the bottom six - though Aberdeen are swiftly nipping at their heels, and have played a game less - which is highly commendable for a newly promoted side.
Some Context...
Firstly, why "The Ruaraidh Blackwood Derby"? Well... Hi, I'm Ruaraidh. I grew up less than two and a half miles from Brockville, I played for Falkirk at youth levels, and my father has been in hospitality at Falkirk Stadium (as an away fan) more times than at Fir Park. And yet, I'm a Well fan.
Growing up in Falkirk when they were still in the Premiership, I always felt there was more riding on these games, especially when playing away from home, and I would relish the opportunity to walk to an away fixture with my Dad. It also gave me EPIC bragging rights over the one other non-Old Firm supporting boy in my year at school. So yeah, that explains that.
The Form Guide...
(The pain of the cup semi is nearly gone from the graphics, I promise.)
Motherwell come into this game still in fine form: 7 points from 9 in the last week. An average of 61.4% possession in the last 5 games. An average of 118.4 successful passes in the final third in the last five league games. But we all know this. We know the simply sumptuous football we're playing.
Perhaps what also worries slightly is the lack of goals scored in tight games. Motherwell are currently sitting at 1.4 Big Chances missed per game which - when compared to the overall Big Chances Created per game stat - accounts for over 58% of the outcomes of our Big Chances. In the last five league games, we've achieved a 34.7% average shot-conversion rate. However, in the last five non-winning league games- Hearts (H), Aberdeen (A), Falkirk (H), Celtic (A), and Dundee (A) - we've only managed 28%.
The discrepancy in these rates doesn't necessarily come because we are dominating teams and scoring so many more goals when we're winning games, it more comes from the fact that our match outcomes can be so easily swayed by the fine margins of how accurate or "un-savable" our shots on target are.
We've had so many games so far this year that I would describe as "nearly-almosts". Hearts away, Celtic away, Dundee away, Falkirk at home. And as much as JBA seems to have steadied the ship of late - when it comes to losing late goals and throwing points away - I can't help but worry that Falkirk could be the team to take advantage of that.
Falkirk come into this match with... a strange run of results. On the one hand, a point gained at Ibrox, a solid and comprehensive win at home to Killie, and an absolute hiding given to United at Tannadice is very positive for John McGlynn's men. However, on the other, a hiding received away to Celtic and a late goal suffered at home to Livingston means they're a difficult team to analyse solely from their form guide.
Don't get me wrong, 8 points from 15 in the last five games is not bad going, considering they've played both sides of Glasgow away from home, but to have faltered at home to Livingston - who also dominated the Possession and Passes completed stats in that game - makes for a bit of a head-scratcher.
Falkirk have averaged 45.8% possession in their last five games, with their only time having more of the ball than their opposition coming in that undoing of Dundee United. While only having a goal difference of +1, Falkirk have also forced a further 13 saves from opposition goalkeepers in those five games, meaning that Callum Ward will almost certainly have to be on his toes in the Motherwell goal.
The Teams...
After the change in system last time out against Hibs, Motherwell reverted back to the tried and true 4-2-3-1. With the majority of the ball, two big chances missed, and two offside goals, it could be very much classed as a "performance with everything but the win". While frustrating, to go toe to toe with title contenders and not drop points is pleasing, although with the stats very much tipping in our favour, I refer to my previous point about fine margins.
For all we had the ball in the net twice thanks to the outstretched toe of Hendry and the quick reactions of Tawanda, the fact is, we also had glorious chances to take the lead. Eli Just must be absolutely kicking himself, having had the opportunity to bag himself a brace. A sumptuous cross from Tawanda found Just all alone at the back post, but the midfielder's header was right down Schwolow's throat. His second effort on goal should've been a stick on, having burst through the Heart (ha ha) of the Gorgie defence and gone one-v-one with the Jambos keeper, but again his effort seemed tame and was well-saved.
The game wasn't without its dangers, however. Hearts very easily could've gone ahead themselves, with Lawrence Shankland's looping header only being kept out thanks to a rather spectacular goal-line clearance from Callum Hendry.
One of Falkirk's star players, and one of the stories of the season so far, has to be Scott Bain. Having moved from Celtic in June as part of McGlynn's rebuild job for the top flight, Bain left after 7 years at Celtic, having made NO appearances for the Hoops since playing against - of all teams - Motherwell in September 2023.
Bain leads the league in saves made so far this year at 56, as well as average saves per game at 4.1, and tops the leaderboard again in goals prevented stats, with an average of 5.6 goals prevented per game. Not bad for a keeper that made 78 total appearances for his previous club.
Bain's heroics between the sticks earned him a Scotland call-up for that crucial double-header against Greece and Denmark, although the geriatric, heroic Craig Gordon played in both games ahead of him, so it certainly seems that his renaissance of form has not gone unnoticed.
Another player on something of a hot streak is Calvin Miller. With a goal and an assist in both of Falkirk's last two wins, the winger has been in pretty decent form of late. A product of the Celtic academy, who has since bounced around multiple clubs before finally finding his feet at Falkirk. Once dubbed 'the best in the world' for his age group, it's fair to say Miller's career hasn't exactly reached the heights perhaps thought of thus far. Still, he's a dangerous prospect who has notched up 6 goal contributions so far this term.
Last time out, Falkirk came up against a Rangers side still very much adjusting to the new regime of Danny Ruhl. Both teams had chances to score, Rangers more so, but both looked pretty toothless in front of goal. Alfie Agyeman (formerly of the Well academy) perhaps should've done better when he charged down Jack Butland's kick, but the ball never quite fell kindly enough for the winger.
Max Rogers Press Conference...
The Tactics...
With John McGlynn very much seeming to prefer a 4-2-3-1 system similar to ourselves, it seems we can expect to go man-to-man against Falkirk.
With that being said, when going man-to-man against any team, the goal could be doing just that. If it were up to me, I would be starting us more in a conventional 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 shape. I would start as below:
The advantages of playing a slightly more aggressive 4-2-2-2 instead of our more conventional 4-2-3-1 is to have the ability to pin back Falkirk's wingers. With Just and Charles-Cook both playing more inverted roles, it would allow the controlling of the inside channels, with support then coming from Slattery or Watt on the inside. The true width of our attack would then come from Koutroumbis and Longelo bombing on, creating something of a 2-4-4 formation in possession. Defensively, this would also still allow Maswanhise to drop either on the inside or wide (pulling Just to the middle) to go back to a more balanced and defensively-sound 4-2-3-1.
With this system, I firmly believe the opportunity would exist to pin Falkirk back within their own box, and slowly strangle their defence. For example, Filip Lissah is a right-footed left back so the width of Koutroumbis would then allow us to play on his 'weaker' side, and hopefully then drive to the by-line for cutbacks or similar attacking chances. The more we are able to keep Falkirk on the back foot, the better, because of their lightning fast counter-attacks.
One of the other biggest worries when playing against Falkirk is - funnily enough - conceding goals in quick succession. Either by chance or by design, Falkirk have a distinct habit of scoring goals in bunches. Take, for example, the two goals in 19 minutes against Dundee United or the three first half goals against Killie, or - regrettably - the two goals in 22 minutes to sink the Well back in October.
Falkirk are known this season for their quick build-up play. With Miller adopting more of a no. 10 role, and the likes of Ethan Williams and Kyrell Wilson bombing on either wing, this could become a game very much dictated by who controls the channels. If we commit too many men forwards - which we've been known to do, especially late in games - all it could take is one slack pass and Falkirk's ruthless counter attack could be our undoing.
Also, if McGlynn gives the nod to veteran Brian Graham instead of Ross MacIver (another formerly of our parish), it could be very different prospect for whomever starts as the back two, as well. Graham has very much established himself as a target man, formerly for Partick Thistle and now for the Bairns. With 3 goals to his name in 4 starts and 12 total appearances it may not have the hallmark of an historic season, but nevertheless he's a poacher who knows where the goals are.
To Sum Up...
This game has the makings to be another cracker. Two teams on a run of good form, in the hunt for European football. Another sell-out atmosphere. And two teams who want to play football the right way. I've every faith that, should the tactics be right, this could be another emphatic night for the Steelmen, but we must always be wary of the firepower coming towards us, and the power of a Falkirk Stadium crowd to become their 12th man.
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